Worries related to the Iran-Israel conflict, quarterly earnings and foreign investors' trading activity are the key factors that would dictate stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, trends in Brent crude oil and movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be crucial factors. This week will be crucial for the market amid ongoing worries about the conflict between Iran and Israel, said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
The rupee depreciated 6 paise to 77.50 against the US dollar in the opening trade on Wednesday as a surging American currency in the overseas markets and persistent foreign fund outflows weighed on investor sentiment. Besides, rising global crude prices impacted the domestic unit, forex traders said. However, a higher opening in the domestic equity market restricted the rupee's fall, they added.
The rupee fell back against the pound to 98.72 from overnight close of 98.48 and turned negative to end at 77.44 per euro from Rs 77.37.
The rupee depreciated 22 paise to a record low of 78.59 against the US dollar in opening trade on Tuesday as persistent foreign funds outflows weighed on investor sentiments. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a weak note at 78.53 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 78.59 -- its all-time low level, registering a fall of 22 paise from the last close. On Monday, the rupee declined by 4 paise to close at its life-time low of 78.37 against the US dollar.
The rupee shed 6 paise to hit a fresh 1-month low of 62.31 on Thursday.
618 companies were part of the billion dollar club when the markets reached all-time highs on September 26, 2024. That number has fallen to 500 following a $1 trillion wipeout in India's market capitalisation amid relentless selling by FPIs.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
The ECB on Thursday cut its main refinancing rate to zero from 0.05 per cent.
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
The rupee had gained 2 paise to close at 66.33 in Tuesday's trade.
Gold prices are struggling and are down 18 per cent from their March highs. But stock prices have fallen even more. As a result, the precious metal has begun to outperform equities - both in the domestic market and international markets. Gold prices are up 2.6 per cent in the domestic market in the current calendar year (CY22) so far, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), compared to a 1.7 per cent decline in the Sensex year-to-date (YTD).
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
Indian rupee washed out initial losses against the greenback.
Rupee rebounds from one-week low, up 9 paise against dollar.
Rupee hits 2-month low, down 21 paise against dollar.
There was mild selling of dollars by banks and exporters
The feud reached its peak when Musk made explosive allegations about Trump's connection to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, marking a dramatic escalation in their increasingly personal conflict.
The domestic unit moved in a range of 64.14 and 63.99.
There was sustained selling of the American currency by exporters ahead of a decision of US Federal Reserve on tapering its monetary stimulus.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and news flow on tariffs are expected to influence movement in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for 'Mahashivratri'.
Falling for the second day, the rupee on Friday weakened by 12 paise against dollar to end at 62.68 weighed down by demand for the American currency from importers and data showing fiscal deficit crossed 95 per cent of the annual target during April-December.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
In the global market, dollar fell against most of its rivals on Monday.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
The dollar index surged to multi-year high.
Stock markets will be driven by further developments on the US-China tariff war front along with quarterly earnings announcements from IT majors Wipro and Infosys in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate market movement this week, experts noted.
Market reaction to the Union Budget was overall neutral. The income tax "gift" wasn't enough to move the needle. There was some apparent rationalisation of Customs duty structure as well as cuts on import duties of some key components for the telecom and IT industry and duty cuts on vehicle imports. Other proposals related to development of agriculture and rural economy and renewables seem to be generally positive.
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
The implication of April 2 reciprocal tariffs on global trade, trends in overseas markets and trading activity of foreign investors would dictate equity investors' sentiment in a holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. Stock markets would remain closed on Monday for Eid-Ul-Fitr.
The rupee got a boost as stock market investors cheered the Reserve Bank's steps. Fresh dollar sales by exporters amid sustained capital inflows also supported the local currency.
the rupee had closed steady at 67.95 per dollar on Monday.
Dollar sales by exporters and firm local equities also supported the local currency.
'Even if India is attractive, FPIs currently lack the funds to invest, as money is being redirected to the US.'
It hovered in a range of 63.57 and 63.70.
Banks and exporters preferred to reduce their dollar position on hopes of further capital inflows as foreign portfolio investors infused $107.22 million yesterday as per the record of Securities and Exchange Board of India.
The Indian rupee on Wednesday ended unchanged against the US dollar at 61.41 ahead of the outcome of US Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
Forex dealers said strengthening of the euro against the dollar overseas and a higher opening in the domestic equity market also supported the local currency.
Stock markets would take cues from the upcoming macroeconomic data announcements and global trends besides keeping a watch on the trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The last batch of the ongoing earnings calendar would trigger stock-specific action, traders said. "This week, we have to deal with macroeconomic data on both the domestic and global front.
